2019 US Dollar Forecast
Forecasts for the US dollar vary from bank to bank and from month to month. This article looks at the general trend in US dollar forecasts and how it might impact your home currency.
Bank forecasts for the US Dollar in 2019
The US dollar (USD) is currently retreating from the high levels reached in 2018.
While most bank forecasts show the USD will continue to decline in 2019, the extent and speed in forecasts differ widely. This is because there are a lot of influences impacting the US dollar.
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Updated in May 2019
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How does a weaker USD affect me?
The US economy is the biggest economy in the world. This is why events in the US significantly influences all other currencies.
Usually, when the USD goes up, your home currency gets weaker. When the USD falls, your home currency gets stronger. However, this isn’t always the case.
For example, in 2018, the USD got stronger, which means the Australian Dollar fell significantly throughout the year. There were other reasons why this happened.
If you want to see why the Australian dollar fell or what will happen to your home currency next year, check out our guides for 2019 currency forecasts.
What are the key influences on the US dollar?
1. US Economy
When the US economy gets stronger the US dollar improves. Right now the US economy is growing, which means consumer spending, employment rates and house prices are all improving.
US politics currently has a big influence on the US dollar. Many believe President Donald Trump will be unable to deliver on his pre-election tax promises. Greater uncertainty from politics means investors will sell the US dollar, because there is a greater chance of it getting weaker.
3. Imports and Exports
The US is world’s largest importer and is the world’s second largest exporter (second to China). When imports are greater than exports the US dollar rises, because it signals a more prosperous economy. Negatively, the US and China have been engaged in a trade war since April 2018 with no solution in sight. This is expected to make the US dollar weaker relative to other currencies.