2019 Japanese Yen Forecast
Forecasts for the Japanese Yen (USD JPY) changes from bank to bank and from month to month. This article looks at the average USD JPY forecast and how it may impact your money transfers or holiday travel decisions.
Bank forecasts for the Japanese Yen in 2019
The Japanese Yen is set to firm up against the US dollar (USD JPY) during 2019. This is after a weaker than expected performance last year. Most bank analysts are expecting the USD JPY to move towards 100.00 from current levels of 108.36.
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Updated in May 2019
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JPY Crosses Bank Forecasts
EUR JPY forecast for 2019
Major banks agree that in 2019, the EUR JPY will trend lower. Most bank analysts are expecting the EUR JPY cross rate to decline gradually within a trading range of 120.00-130.00. The current EUR JPY exchange rate is 124.41.
AUD JPY forecast for 2019
Major banks are expecting the AUD JPY exchange rate to remain flat around the 78.00-80.00 level near-term. For the rest of 2019, it looks like most banks predict the AUD JPY rate to move between a 80.00-85.00 range, similar to last year.
NZD JPY forecast for 2019
Bank analysts generally expect the NZD JPY to remain at currently low levels (under 75.00) in the short-term. For the rest of the year, bank analysts predict the NZD JPY will remain flat within a 70.00-75.00 range.
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How does a rising Yen affect me?
If you're an expat living in Japan you might be feeling less happy the Yen is going to strengthen this year. But how much you receive will depend on if you’re being paid in local or foreign currency. If you’re being paid in foreign currency and spending your money locally, you might not get as good a rate this year as the Yen gets stronger.
On the other hand, if you’re being paid in Japanese Yen and are transferring your money overseas, you might get a better rate. Similarly, travellers going on holiday to Japan won’t be able to benefit from a stronger Yen. Whether you're sending money overseas or buying travel money, the amount you get really depends on what your home currency is doing.
For example, if you’re from New Zealand, you might not get as much Japanese Yen, because the NZD could be relatively weaker than the JPY. Meanwhile, tourists from Australia may benefit from a more favourable exchange rate against the Yen. Please note, there are many variables that can impact cross rates (NZD JPY or AUD JPY) and predicting movements are better left to the experts (who also get it wrong!).
What are the key influences on the Yen?
1. Japanese Economy
The Japanese Economy has expanded since 2012 and will continue to recover in 2019. This should support the Japanese Yen. However, local businesses are unsure whether the gradual improvements will be long-lasting and greater uncertainty can pressure the Yen.
Japanese politics has a big influence on the Yen. The Yen goes up when the elected government implements policies help improve the economy. The continuation of similar economic policies as last year, which appear to be working, will mean the Yen will likely go up. Authorities are also likely to implement policies to help manage any sudden fluctuations in the exchange rate. A stronger Yen could lower demand for Japanese exports and negatively impact the economy.
3. Other Currencies
The US dollar (USD) can significantly influence the Yen. Generally, when the USD gets stronger, the Yen is relatively weaker and vice versa. The Yen is also seen as a ‘safe currency’, which means it will move up against other ‘higher risk’ currencies when there is more uncertainty over global economic growth.