4 Expert Australian Dollar Forecasts for 2019 Compared

After the half way point of 2018, the Australian Dollar has fallen further and faster than most economists thought at the start of the year. So what will happen next year?

Forecasts for the Australian Dollar from bank experts are revised throughout the year. This article looks at the different outlooks and is updated regularly.

Australian Dollar predictions

Volatility rocked currency markets in 2016, but stabilised in 2017 and ended the year even stronger than the "Big 4" banks anticipated.

This year the Australian dollar has tumbled faster than expected, and all the banks have dropped their year-end AUD forecasts to reflect a change in expectations.

Currently the AUD is around 70 cents.

Updated in November 2018

ANZ made a slight adjustment lower to its AUD forecast a few months ago and remains negative on the AUD. With the AUD/USD falling a bit faster than initial expectations, the bank moved its year-end forecast to 70 cents, down from 72 cents.

The Commonwealth Bank (CBA) has changed its tune after making another significant drop in their AUD forecasts. CBA sees the AUD remaining around 72 cents by the end of 2018. This is a significant downgrade from 75 cents previously.

The Commonwealth Bank (CBA) has changed its tune after making another significant drop in their AUD forecasts. CBA sees the AUD remaining around 72 cents by the end of 2018. This is a significant downgrade from 75 cents previously.

Westpac lowered year-end forecasts after the latest AUD declines. They remain fairly negative. Westpac expects the AUD to settle around 73 cents by the end of the year, a slight adjustment from their previous forecast of 74 cents.

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Will the Aussie Dollar go up?

The banks appear divided on where the AUD will be by the end of 2019. With the current AUD trading just slightly below CBA's, ANZ's and NAB's expectations, will the ‘Big 4' banks hold on to their current forecasts? Potentially.

Let's examine the 3 most likely reasons the Aussie will remain weak at current forecast levels:

  • The US economy picks up, US political risks ease, and their central bank increases interest rates, supporting the USD
  • The Australian economy falters and inflation only slowly and gradually picks up, decreasing the risk of interest rate hikes from the RBA
  • China’s economic growth slows more than expected, lowering demand for our commodities (and our Aussie dollar)

Australian Dollar long term forecast

The major banks changed expectations for the AUD in 2018 and this has spilled over in 2019. Now the banks outlooks for 2019 are still negative, with most of them expecting a flat to lower trend by the end of the year.

  • ANZ bank is just as negative in 2019, with the AUD expected to remain around 70 cents by the end of the year.
  • The most optimistic is CBA, with an expectation that the AUD will gradually rise towards 75 cents by the end of the year.
  • In 2019, NAB is expecting the AUD to have a flat profile and end the year at 75 cents.
  • Westpac expects the AUD to slowly decline to 70 cents by the end of 2019.

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General advice: The information on this site is of a general nature only. It does not take your specific needs or circumstances into consideration. You should look at your own personal situation and requirements before making any financial decisions.