4 Expert AUD/NZD Forecasts for 2020 That Are All Negative
Top banks in Australia and New Zealand have a negative outlook for both the Aussie (AUD) and the Kiwi (NZD) in 2020. Both are commodity currencies and both will be negatively impacted by the coronavirus pandemic.
In fact the AUDNZD fell to the lowest levels in 5 years (since 2015) and is expected to remain under pressure.
How else will coronavirus affect global exchange rates?
Uncertainty from the coronavirus pandemic increases volatility in currency markets including the EUR and GBP. Generally, safe-haven currencies like the USD, CHF, and JPY will likely move higher. However, commodity currencies such as the AUD, NZD, CAD and ZAR exchange rates will likely fall.
AUD to NZD Long Term Forecast Summary
- ANZ says it's hard to be upbeat on the NZD and expects the AUD to NZD exchange rate to end 2020 at 1.0500
- Westpac expects the AUD to NZD to fall to around 1.0300 by the end of the year
- CBA sees the AUD to NZD exchange rate staying around 1.0600 by the end of 2020
- NAB predicts the AUD to NZD forecast exchange rates for the end of the year to be 1.0600
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NZD to AUD Bank Forecast
Exchange rates are the relative prices between two currencies and this is why currencies are expressed in pairs. The major Australian bank forecasts are in Australian dollar terms, or the currency pair AUD/NZD. But if you're interested in bank forecasts in New Zealand or "Kiwi" Dollar terms or NZD/AUD you can calculate it.
To convert from NZD to AUD all you need to do is divide 1 by the rate.
For example, if the AUD to NZD exchange rate is 1.1000, then $1.00 Australian dollar is worth NZD $1.10. You divide 1 by 1.1000 to find the NZD/AUD exchange rate of 0.9090.
In this example, $1.00 New Zealand dollar is equivalent to AUD $0.9090 or approximately 91 Australian cents.
We calculated the "Big 4" bank 2020 NZDAUD forecasts for you.
Bank NZDAUD exchange rate forecast
Where to find the best AUD to NZD exchange rates
Compare exchange rates from Australian banks and foreign exchange leaders.
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What is the AUDNZD?
Foreign exchange rates are the relative prices between two currencies and this is why currencies are expressed in currency pairs like AUDNZD.
Due to its major commodity exports, the New Zealand Dollar is one of three primary commodity currencies - along with the Australian Dollar (AUD) and Canadian Dollar (CAD). This means commodity prices have a major impact on the NZD, AUD and CAD.
Does the AUDNZD exchange rate change a lot?
Currency crosses like the AUDNZD can be volatile. AUDNZD forecasts can also change quickly.
That’s why it’s popular with traders and why it’s important to consider hedging if you're transferring money overseas. Many companies offer rate alerts online to help you get the best AUDNZD exchange rate.
Is the AUDNZD rising?
Not exactly. The Aussie dollar is relatively less weak than the Kiwi, which makes the rate slightly higher, but both currencies are falling. Here are some key influences:
- Australian dollar currency (USD): When the AUD rises, the NZD falls. This is because the AUD/NZD is a currency pair. The Australian dollar is falling relatively less than the New Zealand dollar since the beginning of the year.
- Weak New Zealand economy: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut interest rates earlier this year. The cash rate is at 1.0%, but most investors predict the RBNZ will cut rates by the end of the year. When interest rates are cut, the value of the NZD falls.
- Weak Chinese economy: Most of New Zealand's exports go to Asia. China accounts for the majority. When China's growth declines, they lower imports from New Zealand, leading to a drop in the NZD. Unfortunately, China only grew 6.2% in the April-June quarter of 2019, almost a 30-year low.
- Falling commodity prices: New Zealand's biggest exports are dairy, eggs, honey and meat. When milk and other farming goods prices fall, the NZD also falls.
- US-China trade war: US President Donald Trump is looking to increase tariffs on Chinese imports. This is a key reason why China's growth is slowing. When China's growth slows, China imports less from New Zealand.
How do I forecast the AUD to USD rate?
Investors forecast the movement of the Australian dollar as it relates to the New Zealand dollar, by looking at key influences including:
- Currencies - Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and US dollar forecasts
- Central banks - the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the US Federal Reserve (the Fed), European Central Bank (ECB)
- Interest rates - Investors predict how central bank announcements (like interest rate cuts or hikes) will affect interest rate moves and the relative value of currencies
- Local governments - Australian Government and Prime Minister Scott Morrisson, New Zealand Government and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, US Government and President Trump, UK's Brexit and Prime Minister Boris Johnson
- New Zealand Economic Data - Economic growth indicators (GDP), Inflation (CPI Core Price Index, PPI Production Price Index), Trade balance (balance between exports and imports of total goods and services)
- Australian Economic Data - GDP, trade balance and inflation
- US Economic Data - GDP, trade balance and inflation
- China (plus Hong Kong, Singapore, and rest of Asia) Economic Data - GDP, trade balance and inflation
- Commodity Price Forecasts - New Zealand's biggest exports are mostly farming products like dairy, eggs, honey, and meat
Should I trust bank AUDNZD forecasts?
The Australian and New Zealand dollar exchange rates move constantly. So while banks have experts that spend long hours modelling future currency moves, there may be factors that aren't predicted.
Multiple factors influence currency movements that are both local and global. Plus, major bank forecasts are generated with a combination of computer modelling and human influence.
We recommend you don't make your exchange rate decisions based solely on bank forecasts. Instead, take into account your personal objectives, financial situation and needs.
Where can I find out more about AUDNZD?
AUD to NZD Exchange Rate Calculator
Where to find the best AUDNZD cash rate
In Australia, the best cash rates are found in major cities. We regularly check the main money changers in each CBD to find out the best exchange rates in town.
How to track down the best cash rate
You can either walk around to each money changer, try and call each one and check their rate or you can use our city and suburb guides:
General advice: The information on this site is of a general nature only. It does not take your specific needs or circumstances into consideration. You should look at your own personal situation and requirements before making any financial decisions.