AUD Coins

Updated in July 2018

At the half way point of 2018, the Australian Dollar has fallen further and faster than most economists thought at the start of the year.

Forecasts for the Australian Dollar vary from bank to bank and from month to month. This article looks at the different outlooks and is updated regularly.

Bank Forecasts for the Australian Dollar in 2018

Volatility rocked currency markets in 2016, but stabilised in 2017 and ended the year even stronger than the "Big 4" banks anticipated.

As the dollar dropped in the first months of 2018, all the banks lowered their AUD forecasts to reflect their change in expectations.

Currently the AUD is around 74 cents.

 

ANZ made slight adjustments lower to its AUD forecast recently and remains negative on the AUD. With the AUD/USD slightly lower than initial expectations, the bank moved its year-end forecast to 72 cents, from 74 cents previously.

The Commonwealth Bank (CBA) is still the most optimistic of all the banks. This is despite the second drop in their AUD forecasts this year. CBA sees the AUD rising to 75 cents by the end of 2018.

National Australia Bank lowered its near-term Australian dollar forecast recently to reflect a weaker AUD. However, the bank still expects the AUD to end the year at 75 cents, which is on par with CBA.

 

After upgrading in February, Westpac tweaked their AUD forecast down for near-term forecasts and is still fairly negative. Westpac expects the AUD to stay around 74 cents until the end of the year.

Calculate the Cheapest Way to Transfer Money Overseas

Provider Exchange
Rate
Transfer
Fee
Transfer
Time
Total (AUD) Rates last updated August 15 2018
XERead Review 0.7210 $0.00 2-3 Days $13,869.37Lowest Cost Option Go to site Read Review
So, sending USD 10,000 to United States at an exchange rate of 0.7210 will cost you $13,869.37 with no fees.

About XE

XE is a well known and trusted name in the money transfer industry. With over twenty years experience, they now help 33,000 people and 2,000 businesses make transfers each year. Over 60 currencies can be transferred with XE and they pride themselves on the free tools and transparent rates they offer. Click here to read the full review

Pros

  • Well known and trusted brand.
  • Very informative website. Extensive information on currency and money transfers.
  • XE App is available on both iOS and Android. It allows you to see the interbank rate for over 100 currencies.
  • XE themselves charge no fees for international money transfers.
  • Offers support for both individuals and businesses when it comes to international money transfers.

Cons

  • Cannot pay via cash or cheque. Must pay via bank transfer, BPay is also accepted in Australia.
  • Maximum transfer amount is $500,000USD.
  • While XE compares more than 100 currencies, there are only 60 that are available for money transfers.

TransferwiseRead Review 0.7242 $63.64 1-2 Days $13,871.98$2.61 more expensive Go to site Read Review
So, sending USD 10,000 to United States at an exchange rate of 0.7242 will cost you $13,871.98 which includes a fee of $63.64

About TransferWise

Transparency and an easy online experience are the 2 things that set TransferWise apart from the banks and other money transfer companies. If you prefer to bank online, you'll like TransferWise. Setting up an account and making a transfer is very easy. They are also very clear on the exchange rate and fees you'll pay before you make a transfer. Click here for the full review

Pros

  • Clear and transparent exchange rates fees
  • The online experience is first class
  • Like the banks, they are regulated by ASIC and registered with AFSL
  • Constantly bringing out new innovative products

Cons

  • There are currently a number of global currencies they do not currently support
  • Limited support based in Australia
  • Percentage based fee can add up on very large transfers

WorldFirstRead Review 0.7199 $0.00 2-3 Days $13,891.69$22.32 more expensive Go to site Read Review
So, sending USD 10,000 to United States at an exchange rate of 0.7199 will cost you $13,891.69 with no fees.

About World First

World First was founded in 2004 in the UK and has grown rapidly with offices now in the U.S., Canada and throughout Asia. They consistently receive strong customer reviews and in a recent study, 98% of their clients said they would use them again.World First have a strong online offering, particular for businesses selling online. They do provide local support as well with offices in Sydney. Click here to read the full review

Pros

  • Low fees and great exchange rates
  • Safe and secure transfers
  • Regulated by ASIC and registered with AFSL
  • Great for personal and business payments

Cons

  • Does not accept BPAY, credit card, cheque or cash
  • Limited currencies available

TorFXRead Review 0.7199 $0.00 2-3 Days $13,891.69$22.32 more expensive Go to site Read Review
So, sending USD 10,000 to United States at an exchange rate of 0.7199 will cost you $13,891.69 with no fees.

About TorFX

TorFX are particularly good taking care of customers over the phone but using their website isn't the easiest to use. They don't charge a flat fee which is great but it's important to consider their exchange rates. While, they don't offer fantastic rates for small amounts under $2000 , TorFX offer exceptionally good exchange rates for larger transfers to the UK, New Zealand, South Africa and Europe.

Pros

  • No transfer fees
  • Highly competitive exchange rates
  • Secure transfers with authorised
  • Assigned account manager
  • 24 / 7 Assistance
  • Available range of transfer options

Cons

  • Limited exotic currencies available
  • Exchange rates on small transfers aren't great
  • Website experience could be better

HIFXRead Review 0.7199 $0.00 2-3 Days $13,891.69$22.32 more expensive Go to site Read Review
So, sending USD 10,000 to United States at an exchange rate of 0.7199 will cost you $13,891.69 with no fees.

About HiFX

HiFX are one of the biggest money transfer companies in the world. Their parent company Euronet is listed on the NASDAQ and recently acquired Xe.com. They are particularly useful for individuals doing regular transfers overseas. HiFX provide competitive exchange rates no matter how much is being transacted. Their $50 minimum transaction size and flat fee makes them a great option for any international payment. Locally, HiFX have Australian offices in Sydney, Melbourne and are expanding to the remaining capital cities. Click here to read the full review

Pros

  • Fantastic bank - beating exchange rates
  • Low fees for transactions less than $10, 000
  • No fees for transactions of $10, 000 or more
  • High security transfers regulated by ASIC and FMA
  • Fast and easy for personal or business accounts

Cons

  • Only electronic bank transfers accepted
  • Limited exotic currencies
OFXRead Review 0.7143 $0.00 1-3 Days $13,999.72$130.35 more expensive Go to site Read Review
So, sending USD 10,000 to United States at an exchange rate of 0.7143 will cost you $13,999.72 with no fees.

About OFX

OFX (formally known as Ozforex) is the largest Australian owned money transfer company. It launched in 1998 and grew rapidly until finally listing on the Australian Stock Exchange in 2013. OFX excels in 2 areas – Online experience and customer service. The company was born online and continues to develop easy, intuitive products. While OFX customers do most of their transactions online, they are backed up with exceptional customer service.

Pros

  • Better exchange rates compared to banks
  • Highly safe and secure transfers
  • 1 - 2 days delivery times for most countries
  • Quick response time
  • Fantastic customer service

Cons

  • Credit cards, cheques and cash are not accepted
  • Transfers to Thailand can take up to 4 days
  • Fees for transfers smaller transfers

ANZRead Review 0.7108 $0.00 1-2 Days $14,068.66$199.29 more expensive Go to site Read Review
So, sending USD 10,000 to United States at an exchange rate of 0.7108 will cost you $14,068.66 with no fees.
ANZ International Money Transfer is a secure and fast way to transfer money overseas.

Pros:

  • Fast transfers
  • Safe and secure
  • No fee for transfers under $10 000 via Internet banking

Cons

  • $12 fee for transfers under $10 000 via Internet banking
  • Poor exchange rates
  • 24 hour hotline not available

Commonwealth BankRead Review 0.6977 $12.00 1-2 Days $14,344.81$475.44 more expensive Go to site Read Review
So, sending USD 10,000 to United States at an exchange rate of 0.6977 will cost you $14,344.81 which includes a fee of $12.00
Commonwealth Bank provides secure and easy transfers to over 200 countries and more than 30 currencies.

Pros:

  • Fast transfers+ Easy transfers
  • Security guarantee covers any losses from unauthorised transactions

Cons

  • $6 fee for transfers under $1000 via Internet banking
  • $12 fee for transfers under $1000 via Internet banking
  • Poor exchange rates

WestpacRead Review 0.6972 $10.00 1-2 Days $14,353.09$483.72 more expensive Go to site Read Review
So, sending USD 10,000 to United States at an exchange rate of 0.6972 will cost you $14,353.09 which includes a fee of $10.00
Westpac is one of the big four banks in Australia offers speedy and secure transfers.

Pros:

  • Fast payment processing times
  • Secure transfers

Cons

  • Must be Westpac account holder
  • $20 fee for transfers via Internet or phone banking
  • $32 fee for transfers at an ANZ branch
  • Poor exchange rates

How Low Will the Australian Dollar Go?

The banks appear divided on how much lower the AUD will be by the end of the year. With the current AUD/USD exchange rate trading just slightly below CBA's, ANZ's and NAB's expectations, will the ‘Big 4' banks hold on to their current forecasts? Potentially.

Let's examine the 3 most likely reasons the Aussie will move lower than current forecasts:

  1. The US economy picks up, US political risks ease, and their central bank increases interest rates, supporting the USD
  2. The Australian economy falters and inflation only slowly and gradually picks up, decreasing the risk of interest rate hikes from the RBA
  3. China’s economic growth slows more than expected, lowering demand for our commodities (and our Aussie dollar)

AUD Crosses Bank Forecasts

AUD EUR forecast for 2018

The AUD EUR peaked in early June around 65 cents, but has since fallen again. Recent declines were more than the major banks were originally expecting. It is currently around 63 cents.

ANZ has the AUD EUR rate declining to 0.55 by the end of 2018, the lowest out of the four banks. In contrast, CBA is the most optimistic and expects the AUD EUR rate to remain above 0.65 cents by the end of Q4 2018. NAB backtracked and raised its AUD EUR forecasts up to 64 cents (or 0.6400). Similarly, Westpac recently upgraded their expectations for the AUD EUR to go up to 64 cents.

AUD GBP forecast for 2018

Ongoing political uncertainties around Brexit and an economic slowdown for much of 2017 has made the GBP the most undervalued major exchange rate against the USD. This uncertainty is a key reason why major banks lack conviction and have a flat profile for the AUD GBP in 2018.

NAB has raised its AUD GBP to fall to 54 cents by year-end. Meanwhile, CBA has thinks the AUD GBP rate will track slightly higher to 0.5845 by December 2018.

AUD NZD forecast for 2018

All the major banks we looked at expect the AUD/NZD exchange rate to reverse recent declines near-term. The reason(s)? A recovery in key Australian commodity prices combined with a drop in key New Zealand commodity prices.

By the end of the year,  ANZ and NAB expect the AUD/NZD exchange rate to fall to 1.07. CBA is predicting a rise to 1.1067. Westpac also upgraded recently to 1.10. Commonly, the outlook is said to be dependent on movements in the US dollar and economic strength in Australia and New Zealand.

General advice: The information on this site is of a general nature only. It does not take your specific needs or circumstances into consideration. You should look at your own personal situation and requirements before making any financial decisions.

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Helping You Save Money on Currency

Buying travel money or transferring money overseas can be expensive and confusing. So how do you make the best choice and get the most out of your money?

An easy way is to use a comparison table for either international money transfers or currency exchange. These tables list and compare the banks with other large foreign exchange companies.

We’ve also put together tons of helpful videosguides and reviews that will help you make the right decision. You can work out a cheaper way of converting currency while still keeping your money safe.