4 Bank Forecasts for the AUD to JPY in 2020 That All Predict a Lower Rate
The 4 expert forecasts for the AUDJPY in 2020 from Australian Banks, have one thing in common - they are all lower than the exchange rate today.
With investors worried about the coronavirus pandemic, many are buying the Japanese Yen as a safe investment. On the other hand, the Australian Dollar is considered a relatively "high risk" asset and many are selling the AUD.
Bank experts find this interplay between the Australian dollar and Japanese Yen interesting, because it shows how worried or happy investors are about the state of the global economy.
How will coronavirus affect global exchange rates?
Uncertainty from the coronavirus pandemic increases volatility in currency markets including the EUR and GBP. Generally, safe-haven currencies like the USD, CHF, and JPY will likely move higher. However, commodity currencies such as the AUD, NZD, CAD and ZAR exchange rates will likely fall.
AUD to JPY Long Term Forecast Summary
- ANZ believe the AUD/JPY forecast will be 68.00 by the end of 2020
- CBA is forecasting the AUDJPY to be 73.50
- NAB recently raised their 2020 AUDJPY forecasts, with the AUD/JPY exchange rate expected to be about 78.00
- Westpac predict the AUDJPY rate to be 70.35 by the end of 2020, another adjustment lower in their forecasts
Where to find the best AUD to JPY exchange rates
Compare exchange rates from Australian banks and foreign exchange leaders.
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JPY to AUD Bank Forecast
To convert AUD JPY into JPY AUD all you need to do is divide 1 by the rate.
For example, if the AUD to JPY exchange rate is 85.00, then 1 Australian dollar is worth JPY ¥88.00. You divide by 88.00 to find the JPY AUD exchange rate of 0.0114. You then multiply the rate by the amount you want to calculate. E.g. ¥10,000 JPY is equivalent to AUD $114.
To save you some time, we have already calculated the "Big 4" bank forecast exchange rates in the table below:
Bank JPYAUD exchange rate forecast
What is the AUDJPY?
The Australian Dollar (AUD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY) is an exciting pair for its relationship with risk. The AUDJPY will rise on 'carry flows' in a low-risk context, but when investors are worried the AUDJPY will fall.
The Japanese Yen is the third most heavily traded currencies in the world, behind the US dollar and the Euro.
The Japanese Yen is considered a "safe" investment, while the Australian Dollar is considered a "risky" asset.
So when there is a lot of economic or political uncertainty, investors will buy 'safe haven' currencies and sell higher risk currencies. Other 'safe-haven' currencies include Swiss Francs (CHF) and the US Dollar (USD).
Does the AUDJPY exchange rate change a lot?
Currency crosses like the AUDJPY can be volatile when there is economic uncertainty. AUDJPY forecasts can also change quickly.
That’s why it’s popular with traders and why it’s important to consider hedging if you're transferring money overseas.
Many exchange companies or money transfer services offer rate alerts online to help you get the best AUDJPY cross rate.
Is the AUDUSD and USDJPY rising?
Yes and no. The Japanese Yen exchange rate is rising against the US Dollar, but the Aussie dollar has been falling relative to the US dollar. There are many factors that influence the AUDJPY relationship, but here are some of main ones:
- Australian dollar currency: When the AUD falls, the JPY goes up. This is because the AUDJPY is a currency pair. The Australian dollar has been falling against the JPY since the beginning of the year.
- Japanese economy: Japan's economy grew 1.3% in April to June, according to growth data. When the domestic economy is growing, the value of the Japanese Yen improves and the JPY exchange rate strengthens against the US dollar.
- Weak Chinese economy: Around 20% of Japan's exports go directly to China. When China's economy falters, they reduce imports from Japan, leading to a lower Japanese Yen. Unfortunately, China only grew 6.2% in the April-June quarter of 2019, almost a 30-year low.
- US-China trade war: US President Donald Trump is looking to increase tariffs on Chinese imports. This is a key reason why China's growth is slowing and importing less from Japan.
- Safe-haven buying: When investors are worried about global economic growth they tend to buy 'safer' assets like the Japanese Yen.
How to make an exchange rate forecast for the AUDJPY?
Investors forecast the movement of the Australian dollar as it relates to the Japanese Yen, by looking at key influences including:
- Currencies - Australian dollar, Japanese Yen and US dollar forecasts
- Central banks - namely the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the US Federal Reserve (the Fed), European Central Bank (ECB)
- Interest rates - linked with central banks that control interest rates and monetary policy. Investors predict how central bank announcements - like interest rate cuts or hikes - will affect interest rate spreads and the relative value of currencies
- Local governments - Australian Government and Prime Minister Scott Morrisson, Japan's Government and Prime Minister Shinzō Abe, US Government and President Trump, UK's Brexit and Prime Minister Boris Johnson
- Japanese Economic Data - Economic growth indicators (GDP), Inflation (CPI Core Price Index, PPI Production Price Index), Trade balance (balance between exports and imports of total goods and services) and the Japanese stock exchange (e.g. Nikkei)
- Australian Economic Data - GDP, trade balance and inflation and the Australian stock exchange (i.e. ASX)
- US Economic Data - GDP, trade balance and inflation and the US stock exchange (e.g. NYSE, Nasdaq)
- China (plus Hong Kong, Singapore, and rest of Asia) Economic Data - GDP, trade balance and inflation and China's stock exchange (e.g. Shanghai, Shenzhen, Stock Exchange of Hong Kong)
- Refined Product Price Forecasts - Japan's biggest exports are finished products like cars, computers, medical machinery and steel
- JPY technical analysis - Many investors look at the JPY exchange rate and predict which direction it will go by looking at charts
Should I trust the 'Big 4' bank AUDJPY or Yen forecasts?
The Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen exchange rates can change a lot. So while banks have experts that spend long hours modelling future currency moves, there may be factors that aren't predicted.
Multiple factors influence currency movements that are both local and global. Plus, major bank forecasts are generated with a combination of computer modelling and human influence.
We think it's better to look at exchange rate forecasts as a guide. We also recommend you don't make your financial decisions based solely on bank forecasts, but rather, take into account your personal objectives, financial situation and needs.
Where can I find out more about AUDJPY?
AUD to JPY Exchange Rate Calculator
Where to find the best AUDJPY cash rate
In Australia, the best cash rates are found in major cities. We regularly check the main money changers in each CBD to find out the best exchange rates in town.
How to track down the best cash rate
You can either walk around to each money changer, try and call each one and check their rate or you can use our city and suburb guides:
General advice: The information on this site is of a general nature only. It does not take your specific needs or circumstances into consideration. You should look at your own personal situation and requirements before making any financial decisions.